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The State of Transportation — The 2010-2011 Economic Forecast

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This eleventh annual economic forecast, prepared by Chmura Economics and Analytics, places a special emphasis on analyzing the state of transportation in the Commonwealth. It also forecasts employment in Virginia will expand to 0.4% in 2010 after receding 3.2% in 2009. Employment growth is expected to accelerate to 1.9% in 2011. On an annual average basis, single-family building permits dropped16.5% in Virginia in 2009 and are forecast to rise 10.7% in 2010 and 11.9% in 2011. This year’s forecast analyzes a variety of Virginia economic sectors, including technology, the labor market, income, retail sales, and the housing market. The forecast also provides key projections for each of 11 Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

Dr. Chmura has a record of accuracy in most of her firm’s projections. Last year’s Virginia Economic Forecast anticipated the depth of the economic contraction. In 2009, real gross domestic product contracted at a 2.5% pace compared with Chmura’s forecast of 3.1%. The forecast last year called for consumer spending to decline by 0.6% in 2009 which was right on target. Chmura’s forecast of a 20.8% drop in residential investment was very close to the actual 20.5% decline. The job decline in Virginia was also more severe than anticipated, falling twice as fast in 2009 than her projected 1.6% decline. Read the 2010-2011 Forecast Here!

Past Years’ Economic Forecasts:

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