Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy

June 2010

The State of Transportation -- The 2010-2011 Economic Forecast

*** NEW ***

The State of Transportation -- The 2010-2011 Economic Forecast — By Christine Chmura  This eleventh annual economic forecast, prepared by Chmura Economics and Analytics, places a special emphasis on analyzing the state of transportation in the Commonwealth. It also forecasts employment in Virginia will expand to 0.4% in 2010 after receding 3.2% in 2009. Employment growth is expected to accelerate to 1.9% in 2011. On an annual average basis, single-family building permits dropped16.5% in Virginia in 2009 and are forecast to rise 10.7% in 2010 and 11.9% in 2011. This year's forecast analyzes a variety of Virginia economic sectors, including technology, the labor market, income, retail sales, and the housing market. The forecast also provides key projections for each of 11 Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

 
Dr. Chmura has a record of accuracy in most of her firm’s projections. Last year’s Virginia Economic Forecast anticipated the depth of the economic contraction. In 2009, real gross domestic product contracted at a 2.5% pace compared with Chmura’s forecast of 3.1%. The forecast last year called for consumer spending to decline by 0.6% in 2009 which was right on target. Chmura’s forecast of a 20.8% drop in residential investment was very close to the actual 20.5% decline. The job decline in Virginia was also more severe than anticipated, falling twice as fast in 2009 than her projected 1.6% decline.
 
 
 

June 2009

Climate Change -- June 2009 Economic Forecast
Climate Change -- June 2009 Economic Forecast — This tenth annual economic forecast, prepared by Chmura Economics and Analytics, forecasts a 1.6 percent decline in empoloyment in Virginia for 2009 and expects employment increases to begin in the second half of 2010. Housing permits will further decline 18.8 percent in 2009, after falling 33.9 percent in 2008 but will rebound and grow by 5.5 percent in 2010. This year's forecast analyzes a variety of Virginia economic sectors, including technology, the labor market, income, retail sales, and the housing market. The forecast also provides key projections for each of 11 Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Finally, Dr. Chmura, who served on the Governor's Climate Change Commission, discusses the economic impact of proposed actions to confront climate change. View the 2009-2010 Economic Forecast

Past Years' Economic Forecasts:

June 2008

The Housing Recession Economic Forecast
The Housing Recession Economic Forecast — This ninth annual economic forecast, prepared by Chmura Economics and Analytics, anticipates that Virginia's economy will be sluggish for the remainder of 2008 before improving in 2009. Single-family building permits, which fell more than 20 percent in both 2006 and 2007, are forecast to continue declining over the next two years. Other components of the forecast include: Employment growth is forecast to slow to 0.5 percent in 2008 before accelerating to 2.9 percent in 2009; wages and salaries will slow to 3.9 percent amid the business cycle downturn in 2008 before accelerating to 5.0 percent in 2009; and real retail sales are expected to increase at 0.3 percent in 2008 before improving to 3.6 percent in 2009. The forecast provides key projections for each of 11 Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

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